This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.